EVEN HOUDINI WOULD FAIL THIS TEST

Iran has fought bigger bullies over 4000 years

SCATOLOGICAL WRESTLING TAUNTS WON’T DO IT DONALD. just get.a few nights sleep and revisit this issue later.

Several days ago Substack essayist Lucian Truscott headlined a piece that, “A vacillating, befuddled, confused, meandering, occasionally dozing Donald Trump now thinks he’s hosting “Deal or No Deal.”

That sent me to streaming video to watch a favorite program, “The Mentalist” from the 2008-2015 TV period about as a man with the gift of “seeing” what people are thinking and planning to do. I wanted to look at Trump’s behavior in a new light before considering a small wager in the prediction market.

Trump was pleased that the US was able to recover two lost airman alive who were shot down over the mountains of Iran. Navy Seals apparently recovered the pilot quickly, with the weapons systems operator rescued in an intricate operation on Easter morning. So how can two opposite statements have a positive result.

Trump claims his real estate negotiators, Kushner and Witkoff, are talking to an unnamed “big man” in Iran about how to end this conflict. Why then on the holiest day in Christianity would he promise in a social internet note:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

That blistering social note with two scatological threats can only come from a man who has lost more than his common sense, but is too vain to let staff manage his various age-related debilities. (Or Pete Hegseth wrote it) Leverage does not come from that sort of speech. Threatening to bomb Iran back into the stone age is a serious insult to a nation whose history goes back at least 4,000 years, including losing to Alexander the Great, in 330 BCE, about 15 centuries before any Europeans “discovered” North America.

Trump uses threats and occasional vulgar language on social media, but this post is political madness. It indicates some awareness and yet ,his refusal to accept it, that Republican voters are backing away. Perhaps, some frustration came from the Supreme Court oral arguments last week questioning his effort to end birthright citizenship. He broke precedent and sat in the audience with two secret service agents, as “his” Republicans justices helped make his lawyers look like amateurs.

The warfare aspects of this US and Israeli effort to end terrorism in the Middle East are unlikely to be commendable under any circumstances. As we have learned or, perhaps not learned, ground warfare in this region usually ends badly for everyone involved.

The trickle of ships from Iranian-favored nations that are leaving Hormuz with crude oil will end if Trump follows through. It would not be a surprise if —intentionally or unintentionally —a ship or two sank in exactly the right spot to make navigation impossible. A massive crude oil spill there will be an environmental disaster, since even rudimentary cleanup is nearly impossible in wartime.

An electoral disaster for Republicans is an outcome that will put some mandated responsibility back into Congress and the Constitution.

Meanwhile, Trump’s polls continue to tank. In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 36 percent approve of his performance while 62 percent disapprove, a new record low for Trump. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, 38 percent approve of him; 56 percent disapprove. Even the latest Fox News poll shows Trump approval at only 41 percent; disapproval at 59 percent; and fully 58 percent of Americans opposing U.S. military action in Iran.

All this can help Democrats in the midterms, but there’s no substitute for concrete planning to get out the vote, identifying likely Democratic voters, who are registered, motivated, and able to get to the the polls. You can understand why the Administration wants to limit mail-in ballots. Multiple Democrats— mindful that news media coverage is spotty in many places— suggest a call or go on line to the state political parties or local election officials to understand where and what is happening.

We will know shortly whether Trump’s threats on the Strait of Hormuz are real or imaginary. He did tell the Europeans if they need the oil then they should go ahead get it, that its up to them. Thinking it only matters to other nations, is dumb. Is this a quiet revelation that the USA can’t win? As the Ukrainian nation demonstrates with it drones and electronic control systems, just because a bigger enemy has lots of missiles, tanks and troops, it cannot win in the 21st century when a nation feels insulted to have been attacked. One can question if people like Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have the brains and emotional skills to understand that brute force died in Vietnam after 12 years , while managing to loose more than 50,000 American service members in the in the process.